(I've had this post done for over a week but Mr. Gates and his minions kept blocking me, I showed them!)
Top Gun Commander “Viper” to “Maverick” on the fight the day his Dad (his pet aircraft program) was killed:
- What I'm about to tell you is classified. It could end my career.
- We were in the worst dogfight (budget scrap over new aircraft) ever.
- Bogeys like fireflies (propeller driver aircraft and UAV’s) all over the sky (DOD Budget)
OK people, what EXACTLY is going on inside the USAF and the combatant commanders right now, especially CENTCOM and SOCOM? Nearly everywhere you look (on the internet and in defense/aviation circles),there’s talk about propeller driven aircraft, and I include UAV’s in that mix, and they are seemingly ascendant. There are reports of something called the Liberty Ship Project here, there is the previously reported by Excalibur mulling of a prop-driven light attack ISR aircraft here (I still have seen no other confirmation of this), another Inside Defense report of a green light to a future AC-27 “Stinger gunship” based on the new Joint Cargo Aircraft C-27, and now, I see a report about the Air Force’s UAV Task Force proposing a 40 year plan to the SECDEF for UAV’s that would take the service out to 2047.
- On lots of props stuff for the USAF: brilliant. On a 40 year plan for UAV’s: absurd.
If anyone on this earth thinks that they can predict or even hope to project with anything approaching a plan, the next 40 years … with something to do with technology they are simply, um, er, (looking for a word here which won’t get me into too much trouble…must find word which retains my credibility yet doesn’t get me court-martialed…..must find word)
- Not-credible (whew! A hyphenated word!) Silly is another one. Others leap to mind….
From 1968 to today we’ve seen a rather incremental advancement in aerospace technology: better engines, more precise weapons and navigation, satellite technology and stealth, yet much of that advancement came in the latter years. Now, think back 10 years with the vast changes we’ve seen in the internet, computing power, miniaturization, power advances (and sure to be many more with the price of fuel and all the attention for both green purposes but also to get away from fossil fuels/Middle east dependency). While I certainly applaud USAF leaders “planning for the future,” to imagine that anyone has the prescient ability to forecast that far out is bucking the own traditions of our very own USAF.
From the time I entered Civil Air Patrol in 1974, I’ve seen at least 4 knee jerk reactions to the personnel situation in the Air Force. In the 1974 timeframe, a massive “reduction in force” (RIF) happened and tons of people that were in ROTC and other programs were simply shown the door as the end of the Vietnam War saw massive cuts in personnel, units and aircraft. At the end of Desert Storm which sorta coincided with the end of the Col War, yet another RIF with among them, my former B-52 Navigator Mike L. being told volunteer to leave with higher benefits or wait out an almost certain board to determine whether you can stay or go. But if told to leave, your benefits would be about 25% if he had volunteered to leave.
Being the hardhead he is, when told he had to write a reason on his “application to leave” he wrote “I’m leaving because you are forcing me out.” When told he couldn’t put that Mike, had a few choice words for that hapless individual. Mike is now a Navy Nurse and the Air Force’s loss was the Navy’s gain. Finally, just a few months ago, the service was throwing out personnel all over the place and like John Belushi breaking the guitar of the “sensitive guy” on the stairs in Animal House, said simply: sorry. Immediately, the incoming SECDEF stopped that dumb move and was backed up by General Schwartz and SECAF Donley.
One thing about long range planning and one of the BIGGEST mistakes the USAF made. If you look at that Air Force of 1968, what aircraft are left: a few specialized C-130’s (like I used to fly), the T-38 Talon fleet, a few cats and dogs like the U-2, the upgraded engine KC-135R’s, and the venerable BUFF: the B-52. Back when Mike and I were crewed together, I remember hearing about proposals and plans to re-engine the B-52’s back then we had G’s and H’s, now just a few squadrons of H’s. “They” said back then, it wouldn’t be cost effective to re-engine the BUFF. Since the plane is now scheduled to fly until 2040, that call was the wrong one.
Readers, I don’t think it’s very credible for a plan for the next 40 years on things which are by their very nature, technologically dependant and evolving. The design, communications with/by/through/, the payloads, the powerplants, literally everything to do with UAV’s will evolve and dramatically over the next few years, let alone 40. Our government has a 1 year budget cycle, a 2 year Congressional election cycle, a 4 year presidential cycle. Chairman Mao would have a tough time with a 40 year plan.
- So, beware Colonels or Navy Captains with 40 year plans.
UPDATE: H/T Drudge Report: Yahoo news service from AP is reporting here that the USAF is opening up a pipeline to allow non-rated officers (not pilots or Navs) the ability to enter UAV training, get some light aircraft instruction, then specialize in UAV’s. This is a wise move and is reminiscent of the action during the Vietnam War to put Navigators, later called Weapons Systems Officers, in the back seat of F-4’s. The F-4’s were suffering pretty bad losses and the way to increase the pipeline was to not require pilots to sit in the back.