This image from the Search for International Terrorist Entities Group, one of the best resources in the world for analyzing terrorists

The new Osama Bin Laden Tape (full transcript here from SITE Group) is causing many media elements, and quite obviously our intelligence agencies, to give it a review.  I have read the entire transcript and offer my own analysis.  But many of these so called counterterrorist professionals that leap in front of a TV camera now, who were charged in the past for analyzing and defeating these terrorists in the 90’s, should probably slink away from public view.  They didn’t prevent the attacks then and now are making a little cottage industry of writing books and speaking on TV.  But my read of the Bin Laden tape shows that Bin Laden has “jumped the shark.”

Jumping the Shark is a reference to the TV episode where “Fonzie” a character on the Sitcom “Happy Days,” jumped a shark in an episode and the show had a marked decline.  In modern parlance, it’s the moment when a person or thing is in severe decline.  If this rambling, blithering tape is the best commentary that Bin Laden has to offer, PLEASE keep making more!  I am absolutely convinced that American Taliban Adam Gadahn personally wrote the transcript and Bin Laden read or paraphrased it.  Actually, I was fully prepared to say Bin Laden was dead and I assume that the actual words coming from his lips reflect this transcript so I guess he is still alive.  But, he has no coherent message, to Americans or more importantly, to the world’s Muslims and Arabs.

In this speech, Bin Laden mentions “Neocons,” Richard Pearle, reaching out to Jews, Christians, Hollywood, “Democrats haven’t made a move worth mentioning” (regarding pulling out of Iraq) Kennedy assassinated by corporations, campaign finance reform, “money talks,” global warming, Kyoto Accord, “belief of yours on the dollar,” taxes and a 2.5% rate in Islam, among many ramblings. These are indications of someone who understands a little about American politics, but very poorly. It is so poorly written, rambling, incoherent as to almost defy belief.  I also seriously wonder if he didn’t die his beard based on the mistaken belief that Americans respect a younger looking man.  Can botox injections be far behind?  

 We are approaching two momentous dates, the anniversary of September 11, 2001 and a soon to be report and testimony from General Petreaus.  Based on these two events, I predict we are very likely to see multiple terrorist attacks on western and coalition nations.  Al Qaeda has often planned or conducted coordinated attacks in either time or space: Bojinka plot against airliners from Philippines, US Embassy attacks in Africa, September 10/11^th 2001 attacks against Ahmad Shah Massoud and US targets, Spain rail attacks, London Tube and Bus bombings, another airline plot against transatlantic airliners in 2006, and London discos followed by airports.  Based on this pattern, I predict the following loosely coordinated terrorist attacks will take place in the next 1-3 weeks:

• tourist/foreigner attack(s) against targets most likely in Egypt but possibly Indonesia or Thailand, probably a series of suicide attacks against hotels, restaurants, or “discos”
•  transportation attacks against French or British targets, either trains or airports, most probably car/small truck  sized attack similar to the botched attacks against the Scottish airport or the London bombings in 2005.  I think France is more likely because of Sarkozy’s rapprochement with President Bush and that there has not been an Al Qaeda sponsored attack for awhile there
• Leadership attacks against President Musharraf and or President Karzai 

Uncoordinated with the above, I also predict a “Tet Offensive” like series of attacks in Iraq in the next couple of weeks to further attempt to influence the Washington DC dialogue and force a timeline. These will be spectacular and designed to horrify and will probably emulate the attack on the unprotected Iraqis called the Yazidi.

Finally, I believe that the cells we have seen in the US like the Ft Dix conspiracy etc, are unlikely to receive money or direction from Al Qaeda.  I believe that Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri are deathly afraid and would be suspect of any approach from a US based cell or individual and would perceive that to be a FBI/CIA plot.  I believe any major terrorist attack inside our borders will be sent from abroad.  I believe there are active survey and planning cells inside the US and the recent Ferry request from the FBI which I wrote about here is indicative of the kind of “target folder” building that goes on prior to any attack.  Just as actor James Woods described the unusual behaviour of men on an airliner doing what later was believed to be dry runs for the airliner hijacking of September 11^th, I believe the threat is real but the major attacks will come from abroad while the lesser attacks that have been planned here are inspired by, but not directed by Bin Laden and Al Qaeda.

I believe we are winning and if this latest Bin Laden tape is an example of his mindset, advisors, or analysts, he’s close to becoming irrelevant.  Now, if someone could place a well aimed three shot group, all the better.